The Bayeselo rating system [1] is designed to evaluate game outcomes, with a particular emphasis on wins, losses, and draws. However, since basketball games do not result in draws, the system compensates by considering the point difference between teams. For instance, if the point difference is just 1, the winning team is awarded 2 points and 5 draws, while the losing team receives 5 draws. It’s important to note that each draw is worth 0.5 point. If the point difference expands to 2, the winning team earns 2 points and 4 draws, and the losing team gets 4 draws. When the point difference exceeds or equals 11, neither team is given any draws. In summary, a win equals two points, a draw equals 0.5 point, and a loss yields no points. For more details, please refer to the data provided below.
DRAWS = { 1: 5, 2: 4, 3: 3, 4: 2, 5: 1, 6: 1, 7: 1, 8: 1, 9: 1, 10: 1, 11: 0 }
The number on the left represents the point difference, while the number on the right indicates the number of draws. If the point difference exceeds 11, it is treated as 11, which means no draws are awarded to either team.
Bayeselo Rating List.
The modified scoring system is utilized in the ensuing rating list. Team CHN is designated as the benchmark with 2000 Elo points. The outcomes of the 2023 Asian games are employed to compile this rating list.
Rank Name: Elo + - games score oppo. draws win loss draw 1 PHI : 2011 149 149 25 70.0% 1845 44.0% 12 2 11 2 CHN : 2000 171 171 17 73.5% 1788 29.4% 10 2 5 3 JOR : 1983 197 197 13 80.8% 1759 7.7% 10 2 1 4 IRI : 1922 160 160 18 72.2% 1757 33.3% 10 2 6 5 TPE : 1699 171 171 17 55.9% 1698 17.6% 8 6 3 6 KSA : 1680 162 162 16 56.2% 1668 12.5% 8 6 2 7 KOR : 1676 173 173 16 56.2% 1618 12.5% 8 6 2 8 JPN : 1575 170 170 14 50.0% 1565 14.3% 6 6 2 9 BRN : 1575 261 261 8 25.0% 1781 0.0% 2 6 0 10 HKG : 1552 225 225 9 27.8% 1707 11.1% 2 6 1 11 MGL : 1535 224 224 10 20.0% 1715 40.0% 0 6 4 12 KAZ : 1486 234 234 9 27.8% 1648 11.1% 2 6 1 13 THA : 1452 353 353 6 0.0% 1856 0.0% 0 6 0 14 UAE : 1411 259 259 8 12.5% 1668 25.0% 0 6 2 15 QAT : 1349 277 277 9 27.8% 1568 11.1% 2 6 1 16 INA : 1195 307 307 7 7.1% 1507 14.3% 0 6 1
LOS - Likelihood of Superiority
PH CH JO IR TP KS KO JP BR HK MG KA TH UA QA IN PHI 55 61 86 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 CHN 45 55 76 100 99 99 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 JOR 39 45 69 98 99 98 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 IRI 14 24 31 96 99 98 100 98 99 100 100 99 100 100 100 TPE 0 0 2 4 56 57 83 76 90 95 93 87 96 97 99 KSA 0 1 1 1 44 51 82 73 83 84 94 85 98 97 99 KOR 0 1 2 2 43 49 84 75 78 81 88 86 94 99 100 JPN 0 0 0 0 17 18 16 50 56 60 72 72 84 94 99 BRN 0 1 1 2 24 27 25 50 55 58 67 77 78 86 96 HKG 0 0 0 1 10 17 22 44 45 56 65 67 79 84 95 MGL 0 0 0 0 5 16 19 40 42 44 62 64 75 82 94 KAZ 0 0 0 0 7 6 12 28 33 35 38 56 73 75 91 THA 0 0 0 1 13 15 14 28 23 33 36 44 57 66 84 UAE 0 0 0 0 4 2 6 16 22 21 25 27 43 61 83 QAT 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 6 14 16 18 25 34 39 88 INA 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 4 5 6 9 16 17 12
PHI has a winning probability of 55% against CHN.
For comparison, pure bayeselo rating list is described in my other article.
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